Syracuse, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

196
FXUS61 KBGM 151959
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
359 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will persist through Saturday. Cooler weather
with a few lingering showers is expected to round out the
weekend on Sunday, before dry and cool weather arrives for the
beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM Update:

As an upper level trough axis is moving through this afternoon,
isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed. These
thunderstorms have been on the weaker side with somewhat limited
instability and very little shear. That being said, with a weak
steering flow present, these showers and thunderstorms have been
on the slow moving side. As a result, while flooding has not
been an issue so far, there is still a possibility for some
isolated instances of flash flooding.

The scattered showers and slow moving isolated thunderstorms quickly
diminish this evening, with dry weather expected for most of the
overnight. Stratus clouds and patchy fog are likely to develop once
again. A decaying MCS/QLCS quickly approaches from the west late at
night into early Friday morning; likely reaching Steuben/Bradford
counties around daybreak. This line should be weakening as it rolls
through due to limited instability in place. It will be mild
overnight with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

The weakening line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
quickly moves east across most of the forecast area Friday
morning. After this initial morning convection, conditions
should dry out and clouds break for partly sunny skies heading
into the afternoon and evening hours. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon
along a cold front. However there is some question on how dry
mid level air and capping could limit convective development.
Otherwise, Friday will be rather warm and humid with highs in
the upper 70s to mid- 80s and surface dew points in the low to
mid-60s.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday night
with very brief weak ridging building in and the loss of diurnal
heating. Lows are expected to be mainly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

Warm front moves through the region Saturday morning bringing a
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Showers
will move from west to east making an exit by early afternoon. The
timing of the initial round will suppress/lack instability,
model sounding show a cap in the morning hours. Once the showers
move through skies attempt to clear behind allowing for some
afternoon heating. Temperatures will be warm with highs climbing
into the mid to upper 70s with some spots in the low 80s in
northeast PA. NAM sounding shows CAPE values ranging 1,000 to
1,500 J/Kg with 30-35 knots of bulk shear. The cap is not
expected to break until the afternoon hours when a cold front
moves through. This will set off a second round of showers and
storms with more potential to produce isolated strong to severe
storms. SPC has upgraded most of our region to a slight risk
with a fraction of our western region still in a marginal risk.
Otherwise the frontal system moves out of the region Saturday
evening, with showers and thunderstorms ending with its
departure. A brief dry period follows overnight with
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Upper level low continues to rotate as it moves east with wrap
around moisture allowing showers to linger into Sunday. Model
guidance has slight variations of the placement of the low keeping
showers mainly in central NY. Although showers may also extend into
northeast PA as well. Temperatures on Sunday will be cool behind the
front with highs climbing into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Showers
will dissipate Sunday night with drier conditions settling in.
Overnight lows will fall into the low to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM Update...

Cool pattern continues into the start of the week with northwest
flow in place along with an upper level ridge building in. Dry
conditions will finally hold Monday with high pressure building
in at the surface. Skies will clear out by the afternoon with
temperatures in the mid 50s for most of the region with some
areas in northeast PA reaching the mid 60s. Similar cool and dry
conditions are expected on Tuesday with a system passing just
to our south. While the next round of showers is not expected
until Wednesday, there is some uncertainty on the timing and
ensemble, regardless NBM guidance still supports a slight chance
PoPs. Uncertainty continues towards the end of the period but
model guidance hints at another chance for showers Thursday.
Otherwise temperatures remain cool during this period with highs
in the low 50s to upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the
upper 30s to upper 40s with some patchy frost may be possible
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will be present most of this afternoon,
but with isolated showers and thunderstorms around, brief
ceiling and/or visby restrictions will be possible if a
shower/thunderstorms occurs over a terminal. Highest confidence
in thunder was at KAVP, but with much less confidence elsewhere,
thunder was not included at any other sites. If a thunderstorm
does happen to pop-up near another terminal, amendments will be
issued. Late tonight, some low stratus will be present, which
will result in at least MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings.
Conditions likely return to mainly VFR by late Friday morning,
although there will still be some showers around.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and
isolated thunder possible, along with associated restrictions.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BJG